BlinkLab Limited (ASX:BB1) closed at 84c on Tuesday, up 24.4% from the prior close of 67.5c. Turnover reached 2.35 million shares against a one-year median of 213,487, placing the session at the 99th percentile of trading volume across the past twelve months.

No new company announcement was lodged with the ASX during the session. The most recent price-sensitive release was dated 5 August, when BlinkLab reported European ADHD study results for its Dx2 product, and that release coincided with a separate 8.89% move on 991,215 shares. The only document carrying Tuesday's date is a sponsored research update from East Coast Research, which lifted its target price for BB1 to $3.06 from $2.38.

The note sets a base case of $2.64 per share and an upside case of $3.49, with the midpoint implying 354% upside from the $0.68 price used in the report. East Coast Research discloses that it has been engaged and paid by BlinkLab for ongoing research coverage, and that its directors hold shares in BB1.

The target has moved from $1.74 at initiation in February 2025 to $2.38 in November 2025 and $3.06 now, an increase of 76% over eighteen months. The share price has travelled in the other direction, from $1.03 twelve months ago to a low of 48c within the 52-week range cited in the report.

Two changes drive the latest revision. The probability of FDA approval assigned to Dx2 was lifted from 40% to 55%, while the Dx1 probability was held at 80% ahead of a 510(k) submission targeted for year-end 2026. The market sizing was also expanded, producing an ADHD total addressable market of A$7.58 billion and an ASD market of A$1.5 billion.

That ADHD figure assumes 37.91 million tests a year in the United States at A$200 each. The calculation starts with 41.15 million children aged 5 to 14, applies a 20% discount, assumes 80% of the remainder are tested annually, and adds ten years of recurring testing for the 3.85 million assumed to be diagnosed. Universal annual ADHD screening at that scale is not current clinical practice in any market.

Valuation is sensitive to that price assumption. The report's own grid shows $1.63 per share at A$150 and a 15% WACC, against $4.20 at A$250 and 11%, a range of 2.6 times on two inputs BlinkLab has not yet tested commercially.

The underlying clinical result is 82% sensitivity and 83% specificity in 208 children, drawn from 375 recruited. Children with co-occurring conditions or already on ADHD medication were excluded, and the same report cites data showing 78% of children with ADHD carry at least one co-occurring condition.

Forecast revenue in the note runs from A$14.55 million in FY2027 to A$430.24 million in FY2030. BlinkLab reported cash of A$7.88 million in its 2026 annual report, adjusted to A$30.51 million for the valuation once term deposits of A$10.07 million and assumed option exercise proceeds are added. The share count used is 201.57 million against 152.87 million currently on issue.